2010 Charlottesville Real Estate Market Report

2010 Year-End

Published by the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS®

Where Are We Now?

2010 in home sales and activity ended much like 2009. At mid-year, home sales were up 19.2% but by

year end sales settled near 2009 sales levels at 2,707 units—just 1.5% below end of year 2009. Spring

2010 marked the end of the $8,000 federal tax credit for first time buyers, resulting in a nationwide

slowdown in sales. A positive growth marker in the Charlottesville market is the continued pace of

sales in the starter home category. In 2010, starter home sales accounted for 66.3% of total sales

compared to 57.3% for 2009, an increase of 9%.

Listing inventory for the area was down 5% for the year and we are still in a buyer’s market. The float

down in the number of properties on the market allowed for inventory absorption, paired with fewer

new listings in 2010. The Charlottesville market recovery is tempered by a continuing supply of bankowned

properties which we expect to continue to see through the second quarter 2011. Greg Slater,

2010 CAAR President cautions that, “until the inventory reaches and maintains level we consider

historically level, there will continue to be uncertainty in predicting the pace of sales and stability of

pricing.”

Home Sales for 2010

There were 2,707 homes sold in the Charlottesville area in 2010, which was down 1.5% (-42 sales)

from 2009. Albemarle (+.5%), Fluvanna (+10.7%), Greene (+8.4%), and Nelson (+34.3%) showed an

increase in sales for the year. All other areas were down from last year: Charlottesville (-18.9%),

Louisa (-7.3%), and Orange (-25.7%).

Sales in the Central Valley region were generated from the Greater Augusta MLS, which has more

complete data on the Valley market than the CAAR MLS. Sales were down in the Valley by 9 %

compared to last year.

Residential Sales

County 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Albemarle 1680 1440 993 1058 1063

Charlottesville 764 644 562 450 365

Fluvanna 523 423 318 272 301

Greene 291 203 171 191 207

Louisa 217 208 209 178 165

Nelson 259 194 158 140 188

Orange 128 122 85 70 52

Area Total* 4412 3768 2991 2749 2707

Central Valley** 1063 905 824

*includes sales outside the counties listed

**numbers courtesy of the Greater Augusta MLS

Year-End Sales by County

2009 2010

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Home Prices Have Remained Steady

Home prices remained steady in the second half of 2010, a signal of possible price stabilization. The

median prices listed below are the middle of the market of properties that sold, indicating what buyers

were willing/able to pay. Experience shows that a steady hold in the median price is an indicator of

stabilizing prices, also representing what the market will be able to sustain moving forward.

Overall, there was not much change in the median home price (including attached homes) compared to

last year with a slight increase of 1.2%. Albemarle, (+1. 9%), Fluvanna (+1.9%), Greene (+1.2%),

Louisa (+2.4%) all saw an increase in median home prices, while the remaining localities saw a

decrease: Charlottesville (-1.1%), Nelson (-4.7%), Orange (-.3%).

2009-2010 Median Sales Price

$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000

Albemarle

Charlottesville

Fluvanna

Greene

Louisa

Nelson

Orange

Area Median*

2009

2010

*includes sales outside the counties listed

Median Sales Price (Entire Area)

$270,000

$279,000

$266,180

$245,000

$248,000

$220,000

$230,000

$240,000

$250,000

$260,000

$270,000

$280,000

$290,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Price Per Square Foot (Finished)—Pockets of Value for Buyers

The current area average of $139 per finished square foot is the lowest number since 2004, indicating

true “pockets of value” for buyers. Prices declined for the past four years—a $32 per square foot drop

since peaking for buyers in 2006.

The most affordable markets are outlying localities of Fluvanna, Louisa, and Orange. The relative

stability in price per finished square foot in Charlottesville, Albemarle, and Greene supports the

strength and stability of these markets. Housing affordability is a positive aspect of this market. There

are 867 homes priced for sale at $200,000 or less with an average DOM of 136 and an average price

per square foot of $116.

Price Per Finished Square Foot (Year End)

County 2009 2010

Albemarle 152 147

Charlottesville 171 166

Fluvanna 121 116

Greene 129 128

Louisa 114 111

Nelson 170 164

Orange 117 99

Area Average* 144 139

Central Valley** 113 123

*includes sales outside the counties listed

**based on CAAR MLS data

Inventory of Homes for Sale

At year end, inventory is down and prices are stable for two consecutive quarters, signaling what could

be a positive trend for the Charlottesville market. However, local housing experts remain cautious.

“The last 60 days of 2010 seem to indicate some release of pent up demand and this might be caused

by a move up in interest rates, but it’s difficult to tell at this point in time,” notes Greg Slater, CAAR

2010 President. The pace of the absorption rate for inventory will be partially dependent upon the pace

of interest rate increases.

Currently, we have 2,721 homes on the market, compared to 2,877 at this time last year. This continual

float down of listing inventory is continued progress toward a normal range of 2,000 to 2,500 listings.

The median price of homes currently for sale is $279,000, which is $10,900 less than last year. The

average DOM (days on market) of these homes is 176 days, down slightly from last year and 59 days

more than homes sold in 2010.

Days on Market (DOM)

Variables in the marketplace including inventory, foreclosures, short sale, and financing issues affect

the length of time a property is on the market. 2011 CAAR President Barbara McMurry observes, “The

local area DOM stabilized in the second half of 2010 which, combined with the decrease in inventory,

also supports the stability of the market.” Consistent statistics for three year averages support that our

current DOM is our local market’s new set point.

Average Days on Market (Year to Date)

County 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Albemarle 69 91 114 107 106

Charlottesville 57 79 111 116 107

Fluvanna 75 88 118 122 96

Greene 79 93 108 98 96

Louisa 91 126 108 133 116

Nelson 86 111 149 158 176

Orange 72 110 154 145 114

Area Average* 75 94 119 120 117

Central Valley** 143 150 158

*includes sales outside the counties listed

**numbers courtesy of the Greater Augusta MLS

New Construction

It is important to note that many “new” homes are not included in CAAR MLS statistics. However, the

historical perspective of the pace of new home sales gives us a reasonably good picture of the market

for new construction. Counties with increases in new homes sales in 2010 include Albemarle and

Fluvanna, while overall numbers are still below our market’s five-year average of 583.

New Homes Sales (Year End)

County 2009 2010

Albemarle 198 210

Charlottesville 83 37

Fluvanna 44 63

Greene 37 36

Louisa 54 48

Nelson 4 5

Orange 0 2

Area Total 463 431

Condos and Townhomes (Attached Homes)

For purposes of statistical relevance, the sale of attached homes is only reported in Charlottesville and

Albemarle because few properties in this category are located in other counties, except the resort

market in Nelson County. Both localities saw a decrease in sales in attached homes, with a 9%

decrease in the sale of attached homes in Albemarle in 2010 and Charlottesville showing the same

percentage drop from the previous year’s comparison of 28.6% for 2010. The average DOM of the 280

attached homes currently on the market is 191, and the median price of an attached home currently on

the market is $189,900. The median price for an attached home sold in 2010 was $245,977 with a

DOM of 104.

Condo and Townhome Sales

312

157

112

666

568

368 399 363

258

220

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Albemarle Charlottesville

Conclusions

The results in our local market are in line with national figures. Home prices have remained steady and

pockets of value are still attractive for buyers. The gradual float down of listing inventory and the

stability in Days on Market all support the move towards a sustainable and saleable market. For now,

we will continue to watch the inventory of homes for sale and the number of foreclosures coming into

our local market. If we see inventory levels continue to decline and the pace of foreclosures stays

steady, we can expect prices to begin a gradual rise. If inventory climbs again and the regional

economy and loan availability both remain stagnant, there is limited opportunity for growth in our

housing sectors.

Price sensitivity is still a key factor in this market and if you plan to sell a home in 2011, be sure to

have a REALTOR® prepare a comparative market analysis (CMA) so that you can price it to sell. And,

if you are looking to buy, a REALTOR® can help you understand the current market and evaluate

your options.

This 2010 Year-End Market Report is produced by the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS® using

data from the CAAR MLS and the Greater Augusta MLS where noted. For more information on this report or

the real estate market, pick up a copy of the CAAR Real Estate Weekly, visit www.caar.com, or contact your

REALTOR®.